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Five places to fight for

With one Matchday remaining in the UEFA Champions League second group stage, we consider the state of play.

Too close to call
Only three sides, RC Deportivo La Coruña, Bayer 04 Leverkusen and FC Lokomotiv Moskva, are definitely eliminated and nowhere is the situation tighter than in Group B. Only three points separate leaders AFC Ajax from AS Roma, the fourth-placed club, and all four sides will enter Matchday 12 on Wednesday with the chance of progressing. Ajax will go through on Wednesday if they win or draw away to Roma; they will also qualify if they suffer a single-goal defeat of 3-2 or more and Valencia CF are beaten by Arsenal FC.

All or nothing for Valencia
In the case of second-placed Arsenal, the English champions will progress either if they win or draw in Valencia, or if they lose and Ajax also lose. For Valencia, a point below Ajax and Arsenal, it is more simple: Rafael Benítez's men must beat Arsenal, as any other outcome will not be enough. Roma, meanwhile, will advance if they win against Ajax and Valencia and Arsenal draw; or if they win 1-0 or 2-1 and Arsenal win.

Inter have upper hand
With Barcelona already qualified from Group A, second-placed Internazionale FC have a point more than Newcastle United FC entering their final match and will go through by winning at Leverkusen on Wednesday or matching the English side's result. Newcastle face Barça at St James' Park needing to better Inter's result if they are to overtake Héctor Cúper's side.

Dortmund visit Milan
The scenario is the same in Group C, where Milan have finished top, and second-placed Real Madrid CF lead BV Borussia Dortmund by a point. A Madrid win at Lokomotiv on Tuesday will definitely see them through; otherwise they have to hope Dortmund do not better their result in Moscow when the German champions visit Milan.

Juve in pole position
Manchester United have won Group D and Juventus FC are in pole position to follow them into the quarter-finals as they hold a three-point advantage over both FC Basel and eliminated Deportivo. Only a huge win for Basel against Juventus on Tuesday combined with a draw or defeat for Deportivo against United can deny the Italians a place in the last eight.

Little miracle needed
Basel have to win 4-0 or by five clear goals in the case of a Juventus away goal and rely on Deportivo failing to win. However, if Basel and Depor both win then they would join Juventus on seven points and the Italians would go through by virtue of their superior head-to-head results against those two teams. In games between the three, Juve would have taken seven points, Basel six and Depor four. Those are the calculations. In a few days' time, the picture will clear once and for all.

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