Wednesday stats: Monaco v Juve, Madrid v Atlético
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
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UEFA.com looks at the historical precedents to find who has the best chance of claiming the two remaining semi-final places, and discovers both ties are finely poised.
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With only one goals scored in last week's first legs, it is little surprise the two remaining UEFA Champions League quarter-finals are balanced on a knife edge. UEFA.com delves into the record books to find out who, if anyone, of Real Madrid CF, Club Atlético de Madrid, AS Monaco FC and Juventus can go into tonight's fixtures in confident mood.
AS Monaco FC v Juventus (first leg: 0-1)
• Monaco have lost the away first leg five times in the European Cup, winning two ties on aggregate and losing the other three. Both victories came in 1988/89, against Valur Reykjavík in the first round (2-0 second leg) and Club Brugge KV in the second round (6-1 second leg). The ends of their last two UEFA Champions League campaigns were heralded by a 1-0 first-leg away defeat, though: against PSV Eindhoven in the 2004/05 round of 16 (0-2 at home) and Real Betis Balompié in the third qualifying round a year later (2-2 at home).
• Juventus have won two and lost two of the ties in which they won 1-0 at home in the first game. They won their first two such ties, against FC FC Rapid Bucureşti in the 1967/68 second round (0-0 away) and 1. FC Magdeburg at the same stage of the 1972/73 competition (1-0 away) but lost the next two, to Club Brugge in the 1977/78 semi-finals (0-2 away after extra time) and Rangers FC in the 1978/79 first round (0-2 away).
• Based on the historical data, the AS Monaco FC v Juventus match on Wednesday is the most finely balanced of all the quarter-final ties after the Italians won the first game 1-0 at home. In 242 two-legged ties with the 1-0 scoreline, the home team from the first leg has progressed 130 times (53.7%) compared to the away team going through on 112 occasions (46.3%). Both teams will think they have a good chance to qualifying, which could make for another intriguing match.
Real Madrid CF v Club Atlético de Madrid (first leg: 0-0)
• Real Madrid have drawn away 0-0 in the first leg of four previous European Cup ties, and won three on aggregate. The exception was the most recent, however, in the 1990/91 quarter-finals when FC Spartak Moskva were 3-1 winners in the Santiago Bernabéu.
• Atletico, however, have won both previous European Cup ties in which they drew 0-0 at home in the first game. They beat Galatasaray AŞ in the 1973/74 first round (1-0 second leg, after extra time) and, more relevantly, Chelsea FC in last season's semi-finals, winning 3-1 at Stamford Bridge.
• No less than 68.3% of teams playing away first qualify when the first leg is goalless – 71.1% when 1-1 and 83.8% when 2-2 – suggesting that away goals do offer an advantage when drawing. Fundamentally, however, a draw in the first leg strongly favours the away team regardless.