UEFA EURO 2012 hosts Poland and Ukraine have now been joined by Germany in the finals and by Tuesday night that number could include holders Spain, Italy and even the Netherlands as UEFA.com examines the state of play.
There are two more rounds of matches in October and the nine section winners, plus the runners-up with the best record against the sides placed first, third, fourth and fifth in their pool qualify directly, with the other second-placed teams entering the play-offs. More details, including the procedure for breaking ties, are in the official regulations.
Germany won the group on Friday by beating Austria 6-2 to continue their flawless record. Turkey's dramatic defeat of Kazakhstan moved them a point ahead of Belgium with a game in hand and six clear of Austria, who have played a match fewer. Turkey can eliminate Austria with a win in Vienna on Tuesday in the last direct game between the three second-place contenders. Austria ideally need to overturn their 2-0 loss in Turkey.
With three games left, Russia have moved two points ahead of the Republic of Ireland and Slovakia. Armenia's 3-0 win in Andorra lifted them to within three points of second and they go to Slovakia on Tuesday when Russia welcome Ireland. The key match in October matches Slovakia with Russia in Zilina.
Friday's games took Italy eight points clear of Slovenia. In fact, only third-placed Serbia, level with Slovenia and holding a game in hand, can catch Italy. Thus the Azzurri will qualify with a home win against Slovenia on Tuesday or if Serbia do not beat the Faroe Islands. The race for second is tighter with midweek opponents Estonia and Northern Ireland, who like Serbia have a game in hand, one and two points behind respectively.
France have a three-point lead over Bosnia and Herzegovina, who aim to repeat their Friday win against Belarus in Tuesday's Sarajevo rematch. Romania are five points behind France, who they welcome in midweek. Albania, five points off second, go to Luxembourg. The group cannot be decided this week as France must still play Bosnia and Herzegovina though if Les Bleus win on Tuesday, Romania and Belarus cannot catch them.
The Netherlands have a perfect 21 points and after Sweden's 2-1 loss in Hungary, both teams now trail the leaders by six. The Netherlands go to Finland on Tuesday and will qualify if they pick up more points than Sweden do in San Marino, with the top two to play in Solna next month. Hungary, who have played a game more and have an inferior head-to-head with Sweden, visit Moldova knowing defeat could end their hopes.
Greece won 1-0 in Israel and their only rivals now look like Croatia, 3-1 victors in Malta and only a point behind. Greece visit Latvia on Tuesday when Croatia welcome Israel, three points off second having played a game extra.
England have pulled three points clear and if they beat Wales on Tuesday they will know a 7 October draw away at second-placed Montenegro would take them to the finals. Switzerland will be within three points of Montenegro if they beat Bulgaria in midweek.
Portugal and Norway both won on Friday and are three points clear of Denmark, who did not play and thus have a game in hand. On Tuesday Denmark play Norway while it is Portugal's turn to sit the night out, though they must still visit Copenhagen in October.
After the Czech Republic's late draw against Scotland on Saturday, Spain can qualify with victory against bottom-placed Liechtenstein on Tuesday. The Czechs remain second and five points ahead of Scotland, whose game in hand comes at home to Lithuania – third and level on points with their hosts – in midweek.
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