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What history tells us to expect from the second legs

UEFA.com looks at the history of the European Cup to consider the likely outcomes for this week's second legs, and finds reason for cheer for Real Madrid CF and FC Porto.

Real Madrid's Sergio Ramos celebrates scoring against Atlético in the 2014 final
Real Madrid's Sergio Ramos celebrates scoring against Atlético in the 2014 final ©Getty Images

With everything to play for in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, UEFA.com studies the first-leg scores and looks at which teams have the best chance of progressing to the last four based on previous results – and whether they were home or away last week.

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• From 2003/04 onwards, the percentages for round of 16 matches heavily favour the side playing away in the first leg, although that is perhaps to be expected due to the group winners being seeded and therefore playing away first.

• The quarter-finals, though, tend to be much more even, with 59% of teams playing away first in the 44 ties since 2003/04 reaching the semis.

• When the competition gets to the semi-final phase, however, the numbers flip and 64% of the sides playing at home first march on to the final.

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Looking at all games in the UEFA Champions League and European Champion Clubs' Cup, going back to 1955/56, ensures a good sample size for some of the most common scorelines. Note that only matches prior to 1965 did not involve the away goals rule.

According to the figures – and not surprisingly – Paris Saint-Germain have the hardest task having lost 3-1 at home to FC Barcelona last week. The French club have just a 2.1% chance of going through, while the prospects are also grim for FC Bayern München, beaten 3-1 in their first leg at FC Porto; their chances of progression are 22.6%.

AS Monaco FC suffered a 1-0 defeat at Juventus; 46.3% of teams in European Cup history have managed to overturn such a deficit. Real Madrid CF are also well placed to make the semi-finals after a goalless draw at Club Atlético de Madrid; that result has preceded an aggregate success 68.3% of the time in the European Cup overall.

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