UEFA.com crunches the numbers to analyse teams' chances of going through based on final points' totals – and finds that 12 or more is a near certainty, but six points could do.
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With the UEFA Champions League group stage concluding next week, what are your teams' chances of going through based on their final points' totals? Finish with more than 12 points and you're secure – but even six could be enough.
Who is through already?
All the permutations
• 18 points: Zenit are the only side who can finish with maximum points – Real Madrid have done it twice since 2003/04 (2011/12, 2014/15). It's a 100% success rate.
• 16 points: Ten teams have amassed 16 points in the last 12 seasons – all have progressed to the round of 16 (100%). Real Madrid and Barcelona could both reach this total on matchday six.
• 15 points: another 100% record, with 13 out of 13 teams to collect 15 points going through.
• 14 points: again, 13 teams have finished on 14 points – all have advanced.
• 13 points: no fewer than 31 sides have garnered 13 points, and once more all have progressed.
• 12 points: the first less-than-perfect record, with 23 of the 24 teams who secured that tally proceeding to the round of 16 (95.8%). Napoli were the side to miss out, in 2013/14, ending up behind Borussia Dortmund and Arsenal in a three-way head-to-head.
• 11 points: 29 teams have concluded a group stage with 11 points – all 29 have survived into the knockouts.
• 10 points: 39 of the 47 teams who have picked up ten points have got through: PSV (2003/04), Olympiacos and Dynamo Kyiv (both 2004/05), Werder Bremen (2006/07), Manchester City (2011/12), Chelsea and CFR Cluj (both 2012/13) and Benfica (2013/14) were the sides to miss out – Chelsea could repeat the trick this year, while fellow Group G club Porto could also lose out on ten points.
• 9 points: still positive, since 15 of the 24 teams who have finished on this number have prolonged their interest in the competition (62.5%); Olympiacos and Arsenal are among the contenders who could miss out in 2015/16.
• 8 points: clubs still have a decent chance of staying in the competition – 12 of 27 (44.4%) have done so – although this is the first total on which prospects of progress are less than 50-50.
• 7 points: just four of the 34 clubs to declare on seven points have advanced – 11.8%. The 2005/06 campaign featured two of them, Rangers and Bremen, with Galatasaray (2013/14) and Basel last season the others to have scraped through.
• 6 points: 23 teams have finished a group stage campaign on six points since 2003/04, and only one – Zenit in 2013/14 – had enough to go through. That represents a success rate of just 4.3% although Roma could join the select group this term.
• 5 points or fewer: since 2003/04, 105 sides have registered five points or less and none has gone through – 27 teams have finished on five points, 23 on four, 22 on three, 10 on two, 13 on one and 12 ended point-less.