#UCLfantasy: What the numbers say

Ahead of matchday five, UEFA.com crunches the numbers to find out which players are predicted for big points hauls.

Manchester United's Paul Pogba is projected to be the highest scorer on matchday five
Manchester United's Paul Pogba is projected to be the highest scorer on matchday five ©AFP/Getty Images

Predicting which Fantasy players are going to perform on a given matchday is a difficult task. Through crunching the numbers, a projected points total for each player has been calculated based on the player's historical performance in the UEFA Champions League. Goals, assists, clean sheets and the likelihood of playing are the major parameters used in our projections.

The top projected players for each position for matchday five are given below.

GOALKEEPERS

Player Price
Club Opponents Home/Away Gameday Projected
Andre Onana 4.5 Ajax AEK Athens A Tuesday 6.2
Roman Bürki    5.6 Dortmund Club Brugge H Wednesday 6.1
Marc-André ter Stegen 6.0 Barcelona PSV Eindhoven A Wednesday 6.1
Jan Oblak 5.9 Atlético Monaco H Wednesday 6.1
Iker Casillas 5.6 Porto Schalke H Wednesday 6.1

The top projected goalkeeper is Ajax's Andre Onana, who at just €4.5m represents a cheap option that can free up funds elsewhere. Matchday five opponents AEK have failed to score in three of their four group matches this season. Dortmund's Roman Bürki has provided managers with a steady flow of points this season having kept three clean sheets in four matches in Group A, while Marc-André ter Stegen, Jan Oblak and Iker Casillas are all projected to keep a clean sheet.

DEFENDERS

Player Price
Club Opponents Home/Away Gameday Projected
Jordi Alba 6.6 Barcelona PSV Eindhoven A Wednesday 7.8
Achraf Hakimi 4.5 Dortmund Club Brugge H Wednesday 7.7
David Alaba 6.5 Bayern Benfica H Tuesday 7.2
Mats Hummels 6.1 Bayern Benfica H Tuesday 7.0
Filipe Luís 5.9 Atlético Monaco H Wednesday 7.0
Leonardo Bonucci 6.1 Juventus Valencia H Tuesday 6.8
Alex Telles 5.5 Porto Schalke H Wednesday 6.2
Éder Militão 4.5 Porto Schalke H Wednesday 6.0
Felipe 5.0 Porto Schalke H Wednesday 6.0
Maxi Pereira 5.0 Porto Schalke H Wednesday 6.0

Jordi Alba once again leads the way for the defenders, mainly due to his attacking potential. With one goal and three assists already in this year's UEFA Champions League, the top-scoring defender is hard to ignore.

Achraf Hakimi is next on the list having started Dortmund's last two group matches and produced a clean sheet and three assists on matchday three. Costing €4.5m and owned by 4% of managers, Hakimi is an excellent budget differential. At the bottom of the top ten are a quartet of Porto players, with the Portuguese side projected to keep a clean sheet at home to Schalke.

MIDFIELDERS

Player Price
Club Opponents Home/Away Gameday Projected
Paul Pogba 9.1 Man. Utd Young Boys H Tuesday 10.8
Nikola Vlašić 6.6 CSKA Moskva Plzeň H Tuesday 8.4
Riyad Mahrez 8.5 Man. City Lyon A Tuesday 8.0
Coutinho 8.5 Barcelona PSV Eindhoven A Wednesday 6.6
Ivan Rakitić    7.1 Barcelona PSV Eindhoven A Wednesday 6.6
Noussair Mazraoui 5.1 Ajax AEK Athens A Tuesday 5.8
Koke 8.0 Atlético Monaco H Wednesday 5.4
David Silva 9.0 Man. City Lyon A Tuesday 5.4
Karim Demirbay 6.5 Hoffenheim Shakhtar H Tuesday 5.0
Juan Mata 7.4 Man. Utd Young Boys H Tuesday 4.8

Paul Pogba leads the way in the midfield department. With Manchester United set to face Young Boys, the Frenchman is projected to score heavily having notched 16 points (two goals, one assist) against Young Boys on matchday one. CSKA Moskva's Nikola Vlašić is projected to be the second top midfield scorer and, as a bonus, is the second cheapest player on the list. The Russian side face a Plzeň team that has conceded 14 goals already in this season's group stage, Vlašić (owned by only 4% of managers) providing a goal and an assist in the teams' matchday one game on his way to ten points.

Lower down the list, players from the traditional big-hitters are projected to score highly. Riyad Mahrez, David Silva, Philippe Coutinho and Ivan Rakitić have been consistently scoring points at Manchester City and Barcelona this season. Attention is also drawn to Noussair Mazraoui of Ajax. Priced just €5.1m, the Moroccan has already scored twice in this season's group stage and a visit to AEK, who have conceded at least two goals in every group match this season, should afford more chances to increase that total.

FORWARDS

Player Price
Club Opponents Home/Away Gameday Projected
Lionel Messi 11.6 Barcelona PSV Eindhoven A Wednesday 8.2

Andrej Kramarić

7.6 Hoffenheim Shakhtar H Tuesday 7.9

Cristiano Ronaldo

11.9 Juventus Valencia H Tuesday 7.0
Antoine Griezmann 10.5 Atlético Monaco H Wednesday 6.4
Kylian Mbappé 10.0 Paris Liverpool H Wednesday 6.0
Lorenzo Insigne 8.5 Napoli Crvena zvezda H Wednesday 6.0
José Callejón 8.5 Napoli Crvena zvezda H Wednesday 5.4

Dusan Tadić

7.0 Ajax AEK Athens A Tuesday 5.2
Mauro Icardi 10.0 Internazionale Tottenham A Wednesday 5.1
Joelinton 6.0 Hoffenheim Shakhtar H Tuesday 5.0

The importance of home advantage is on display with seven of the top ten projected forwards for matchday five playing in front of their own fans. Barcelona's Lionel Messi and Internazionale's Mauro Icardi buck the trend, Messi having already scored five goals in his two appearances this season while Icardi has found the net in three of Inter's four group stage matches.

Having scored against his old club last time out, Cristiano Ronaldo faces Valencia having been sent off against them on matchday one and missed out on taking the two penalties Juve were subsequently awarded. Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne and José Callejón are projected to produce attacking returns against Crvena zvezda, who have conceded ten goals in their two away games in this season's group stage. Insigne offers slightly better value having scored three goals to Callejón's two assists in the competition so far.

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