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#UCLfantasy: What the numbers say

Ahead of matchday five, UEFA.com crunches the numbers to find out which players are predicted for big points hauls.

Manchester United's Paul Pogba is projected to be the highest scorer on matchday five
Manchester United's Paul Pogba is projected to be the highest scorer on matchday five ©AFP/Getty Images

Predicting which Fantasy players are going to perform on a given matchday is a difficult task. Through crunching the numbers, a projected points total for each player has been calculated based on the player's historical performance in the UEFA Champions League. Goals, assists, clean sheets and the likelihood of playing are the major parameters used in our projections.

The top projected players for each position for matchday five are given below.

GOALKEEPERS

PlayerPrice
ClubOpponentsHome/AwayGamedayProjected
Andre Onana4.5AjaxAEK AthensATuesday6.2
Roman Bürki   5.6DortmundClub BruggeHWednesday6.1
Marc-André ter Stegen6.0BarcelonaPSV EindhovenAWednesday6.1
Jan Oblak5.9AtléticoMonacoHWednesday6.1
Iker Casillas5.6PortoSchalkeHWednesday6.1

The top projected goalkeeper is Ajax's Andre Onana, who at just €4.5m represents a cheap option that can free up funds elsewhere. Matchday five opponents AEK have failed to score in three of their four group matches this season. Dortmund's Roman Bürki has provided managers with a steady flow of points this season having kept three clean sheets in four matches in Group A, while Marc-André ter Stegen, Jan Oblak and Iker Casillas are all projected to keep a clean sheet.

DEFENDERS

PlayerPrice
ClubOpponentsHome/AwayGamedayProjected
Jordi Alba6.6BarcelonaPSV EindhovenAWednesday7.8
Achraf Hakimi4.5DortmundClub BruggeHWednesday7.7
David Alaba6.5BayernBenficaHTuesday7.2
Mats Hummels6.1BayernBenficaHTuesday7.0
Filipe Luís5.9AtléticoMonacoHWednesday7.0
Leonardo Bonucci6.1JuventusValenciaHTuesday6.8
Alex Telles5.5PortoSchalkeHWednesday6.2
Éder Militão4.5PortoSchalkeHWednesday6.0
Felipe5.0PortoSchalkeHWednesday6.0
Maxi Pereira5.0PortoSchalkeHWednesday6.0

Jordi Alba once again leads the way for the defenders, mainly due to his attacking potential. With one goal and three assists already in this year's UEFA Champions League, the top-scoring defender is hard to ignore.

Achraf Hakimi is next on the list having started Dortmund's last two group matches and produced a clean sheet and three assists on matchday three. Costing €4.5m and owned by 4% of managers, Hakimi is an excellent budget differential. At the bottom of the top ten are a quartet of Porto players, with the Portuguese side projected to keep a clean sheet at home to Schalke.

MIDFIELDERS

PlayerPrice
ClubOpponentsHome/AwayGamedayProjected
Paul Pogba9.1Man. UtdYoung BoysHTuesday10.8
Nikola Vlašić6.6CSKA MoskvaPlzeňHTuesday8.4
Riyad Mahrez8.5Man. CityLyonATuesday8.0
Coutinho8.5BarcelonaPSV EindhovenAWednesday6.6
Ivan Rakitić   7.1BarcelonaPSV EindhovenAWednesday6.6
Noussair Mazraoui5.1AjaxAEK AthensATuesday5.8
Koke8.0AtléticoMonacoHWednesday5.4
David Silva9.0Man. CityLyonATuesday5.4
Karim Demirbay6.5HoffenheimShakhtarHTuesday5.0
Juan Mata7.4Man. UtdYoung BoysHTuesday4.8

Paul Pogba leads the way in the midfield department. With Manchester United set to face Young Boys, the Frenchman is projected to score heavily having notched 16 points (two goals, one assist) against Young Boys on matchday one. CSKA Moskva's Nikola Vlašić is projected to be the second top midfield scorer and, as a bonus, is the second cheapest player on the list. The Russian side face a Plzeň team that has conceded 14 goals already in this season's group stage, Vlašić (owned by only 4% of managers) providing a goal and an assist in the teams' matchday one game on his way to ten points.

Lower down the list, players from the traditional big-hitters are projected to score highly. Riyad Mahrez, David Silva, Philippe Coutinho and Ivan Rakitić have been consistently scoring points at Manchester City and Barcelona this season. Attention is also drawn to Noussair Mazraoui of Ajax. Priced just €5.1m, the Moroccan has already scored twice in this season's group stage and a visit to AEK, who have conceded at least two goals in every group match this season, should afford more chances to increase that total.

FORWARDS

PlayerPriceClubOpponentHome/AwayGamedayProjected
Messi11.6BarcelonaEindhovenAWednesday8.2
Kramaric7.6HoffenheimShakhtarHTuesday7.9
C. Ronaldo11.9JuventusValenciaHTuesday7
Griezmann10.5AtleticoMonacoHWednesday6.4
Mbappé10ParisLiverpoolHWednesday6
Insigne8.5NapoliCrvena zvezdaHWednesday6
Callejon8.5NapoliCrvena zvezdaHWednesday5.4
Tadic7AjaxAEKATuesday5.2
Icardi10InterTottenhamAWednesday5.1
Joelinton6HoffenheimShakhtarHTuesday5

The importance of home advantage is on display with seven of the top ten projected forwards for matchday five playing in front of their own fans. Barcelona's Lionel Messi and Internazionale's Mauro Icardi buck the trend, Messi having already scored five goals in his two appearances this season while Icardi has found the net in three of Inter's four group stage matches.

Having scored against his old club last time out, Cristiano Ronaldo faces Valencia having been sent off against them on matchday one and missed out on taking the two penalties Juve were subsequently awarded. Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne and José Callejón are projected to produce attacking returns against Crvena zvezda, who have conceded ten goals in their two away games in this season's group stage. Insigne offers slightly better value having scored three goals to Callejón's two assists in the competition so far.

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