More away day blues in store?
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
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There was just one away win on UEFA Champions League matchday one, although there are several reasons why that may change this week, as UEFA.com explains.
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There was something unique about FC Zenit's 2-0 victory over SL Benfica in Lisbon on matchday one – it was the only away win in the opening 16 UEFA Champions League fixtures.
With ten home victories and five draws, this was the lowest number of away wins recorded on the first matchday since the resumption of the single group stage format in the 2003/04 campaign. The previous record low came in 2007/08 when there were just two away successes on matchday one, for Valencia CF and Manchester United FC.
Whether the trend will continue this week is open to question given Real Madrid CF and FC Bayern München – two sides with formidable away records last season – both hit the road.
Madrid, who visit newcomers PFC Ludogorets Razgrad, won four of six games outside Spain in 2013/14 while Bayern were undefeated in ten UEFA Champions League away matches before their semi-final loss to the Merengues at the Santiago Bernabéu. Bayern face PFC CSKA Moskva tonight hoping to repeat last term's 3-1 away victory against Leonid Slutski's side.
If they falter and the trend does continue, we could be on course for the highest number of home wins in 11 years – as the statistical analysis of past seasons tells us.
However, as the graph below shows, away wins have generally been on the rise since 2003/04 so it will be interesting to see if this week's games give some indication as to whether matchday one is more than just an anomaly.
- 46.3 is the average number of home wins in a group stage campaign of 96 matches (16 matches x 6 match days).
- 53 is the highest number of home wins in a single group stage campaign in the last 11 seasons; the lowest is 37. If there were ten home wins in each of the remaining five match days – as on matchday one – we would end up with 60 this year.
- The average number of away wins since 2003/04 is 27.2. This means 28.3% of the 96 matches ending in victory for the visitors.
- The highest number of away wins in a season is 34, recorded in 2009/10. The lowest number came in 2004/05 with just 21 away victories.
- The average number of draws over the last 11 seasons in the group stage is 22.5. The matchday one total of five draws suggests this season may not be too different from the 11-year average.