UCL Fantasy Football Matchday 13: What the numbers say

Predicting which Fantasy players are going to perform on a given matchday is a difficult task. Through crunching the numbers, a projected points total for each player has been calculated based on the player's historical performance in the UEFA Champions League. Goals, assists, clean sheets and the likelihood of playing are the main parameters used in our projections.

The top five projected players for both Manchester City and Chelsea are given below. As ever, check the latest team news and predicted line-ups before making your selection.

MANCHESTER CITY

After scoring both goals in Manchester’s City’s 2-0 home victory against Paris Saint-Germain in the semi-final second leg, it comes as no surprise that the algorithm suggests that Riyad Mahrez could be the highest Fantasy points scorer in the final. The Algerian star has been in excellent form throughout the knockout stage, registering six attacking returns in his last five appearances and accruing 41 #UCLfantasy points in the process.

Kevin De Bruyne has consistently proven to be one of Manchester City’s most reliable players from an attacking perspective, having recorded three goals, four assists and 50 Fantasy points despite having made just seven appearances in this season’s competition. Always such an influential figure with the Manchester City midfield, De Bruyne may be utilised as a false nine by Josep Guardiola in the final which could well increase his points ceiling.

Just behind De Bruyne in terms of projected points is Phil Foden, who is currently the second highest owned #UCLfantasy asset remaining in the competition and the top scorer among midfielders with 63 points. Three goals, three assists and 32 ball recoveries mean that Foden can provide his ownership with three separate avenues from which to score #UCLfantasy points and establishes him as a highly popular pick.

Rounding out the top five are defenders Kyle Walker and Rúben Dias. Only two points separate the pair with both having made ten appearances over the course of the 12 matchdays. Both have acquired six clean sheets, although full-back Walker leads the Portuguese centre-half on ball recoveries, recording 61 compared to Dias’s 50, which has boosted the Englishman’s total #UCLfantasy score to 59 points overall. With such fine margins separating both defenders, each are expected to attract significant #UCLfantasy interest amongst managers searching for defensive points.

CHELSEA

Off the back of six #UCLfantasy points accrued in Chelsea's 2-0 second-leg win against Real Madrid, it is central midfielder Jorginho who is the highest projected Fantasy points scorer for Thomas Tuchel's side. The Italian international is by far the highest scoring #UCLfantasy asset from a ball recovery perspective and despite not gaining an attacking return on Matchday 12, it was his 14 ball recoveries that bolstered his total. Having now racked up a total of 78 recoveries from 11 starts in this season’s UEFA Champions League campaign, Jorginho owners will be expecting to profit once again from this avenue while the midfielder is also expected to take any penalties that fall Chelsea's way, which only enhances his #UCLfantasy appeal.

Since head coach Tuchel arrived at the club, Chelsea’s defence has gone from strength to strength and with four clean sheets from six knockout stage fixtures in Europe, it is no surprise to see three defenders amongst their top five projected #UCLfantasy point scorers. Ben Chilwell has been afforded license to roam forward on the left-hand side in search of attacking returns and he has previous in front of goal this season, finding the net on Matchday 9. Having logged 27 #UCLfantasy points over the course of the last four matchdays, such numbers are reflected in his projected score.

Coming up just behind Chilwell are two more defenders in the form of club captain César Azpilicueta and centre-back Antonio Rüdiger. The former was deployed as a right-sided wing-back against Real Madrid in the semi-finals and should the same scenario occur in the final, this should see Azpilicueta given more attacking freedom. Indeed, the 31-year-old registered an assist from that position against Manchester City when the two sides locked horns in the Premier League recently. Rüdiger claimed an assist of his own on Matchday 11, proving that he too can provide a threat offensively, and back-to-back returns of six #UCLfantasy points should see the German defender attract significant interest ahead of Matchday 13.

Completing the top five is goalkeeper Edouard Mendy, who has enjoyed an excellent first UEFA Champions League campaign for his side after moving to West London last summer. The Senegalese stopper has recorded eight European shutouts, the most of any goalkeeper, along with 31 saved shots, and this has resulted in him establishing himself as the second highest scoring #UCLfantasy asset remaining in the competition. When taking into account Manchester City’s attacking threat, Mendy could well be kept busy in the final and even if he fails to keep a clean sheet, he can still gain points through shot saves, especially if the match goes to extra time.

Mendy is also not to be underestimated in the event that he faces a Manchester City penalty, having saved Sergio Agüero's spot kick in the recent fixture between the two sides. However, #UCLfantasy managers should be aware the Mendy suffered a rib injury in Chelsea's final Premier League match of the season and his participation on Matchday 13 is not yet certain. With the #UCLfantasy deadline running right up until kick-off, waiting for team line-ups is crucially important.