What are each team's chances of going through?

Can Porto, Basel or Beşiktaş do something unprecedented? Who has the statistical edge between Roma and Shakhtar Donetsk? We look at each team's chances of going through from their current position.

Lionel Messi's away goal against Chelsea changed Barcelona's chances from 45.1% to 69.0%, the stats say
Lionel Messi's away goal against Chelsea changed Barcelona's chances from 45.1% to 69.0%, the stats say ©Getty Images

The eight UEFA Champions League round of 16 first legs produced eight different scorelines, some slightly closer than others.

Results ranged from 5-0 wins, both home and away, to three draws by different scorelines. It is fair to say some teams will be a little more confident than others going into the second legs starting on Tuesday.

We looked at every past first leg in the European Champion Clubs' Cup/UEFA Champions League with an identical scoreline to the current round of 16 ties and noted which teams went though.

So while the precedents say Roma and Shakhtar Donetsk are virtually level, Porto, Basel and Beşiktaş must do things no side has done in this competition before. Which, by the way, was also the case last season when Barcelona welcomed Paris Saint-Germain having lost the first leg 4-0 in France ...

Highlights: Real Madrid 3-1 Paris
Highlights: Real Madrid 3-1 Paris

6 March
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (1-3)
Times first-leg scoreline has happened:  91
Home side in second leg through: 21 (23.1%)
Away side in second leg through: 70 (76.9%)

Liverpool v Porto (5-0)
Times: 29
Home side in second leg through: 29 (100%)
Away side in second leg through: 0 (0%)

7 March
Tottenham Hotspur v Juventus (2-2)
Times: 82
Home side in second leg through: 65 (79.3%)
Away side in second leg through: 17 (20.7%)

Manchester City v Basel (4-0)
Times: 58
Home side in second leg through: 58 (100%)
Away side in second leg through: 0 (0%)

13 March
Manchester United v Sevilla (0-0)
Times: 204
Home side in second leg through: 136 (66.7%)
Away side in second leg through: 68 (33.3%)

Highlights: Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Roma
Highlights: Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Roma

Roma v Shakhtar Dontesk (1-2)
Times: 175
Home side in second leg through: 87 (49.7%)
Away side in second leg through: 88 (50.3%)

14 March
Barcelona v Chelsea (1-1)
Times: 200
Home side in second leg through: 138 (69.0%)
Away side in second leg through: 62 (31.0%)

Beşiktaş v Bayern München (0-5)
Times: 3
Home side in second leg through: 0 (0%)
Away side in second leg through: 3 (100%)

Bonus UEFA Champions League round of 16 stat ...

How many seeds (home in second leg) have gone through
8: 2013/14
7: 2005/06, 2010/11
6: 2006/07, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2014/15, 2015/16, 2016/17
5: 2003/04, 2004/05, 2008/09
4: 2009/10
3: 2007/08

  • All the seeded sides are at home in the second legs.
Top